Follett (601865): The industry’s high economy continues to expand production and reduce costs and profits

Follett (601865): The industry’s high economy continues to expand production and reduce costs and profits
The leader of photovoltaic glass enters a new round of expansion: the company completed the construction of the first 300-ton / day photovoltaic glass production line in 2008, and the company’s two rounds of production expansion cycles from 2008-2010 and 2012-2013, reaching the daily melting at the end of 2013The amount is 2290 tons / day.From 2014 to 2016, the company’s production capacity remained stable. From 2016, after the upward trend of photovoltaic installation and the company’s successful listing, the company entered a new round of expansion cycle. In 2019, the company’s production capacity reached 5400 tons per day, and its market share reached more than 20%.The company plans to build a new capacity of 4,400 tons / day in 2020-2021, and the market expansion is expected to further increase. The tight supply and demand pattern will continue until 2020: the daily melting capacity that can be released in 2020 is about 8,000 tons 天津夜网 / day, and the total effective capacity increase is about 3000-3500 tons / day, which is higher than the average daily melting in 2019.The volume growth is about 13%. Considering the increase in installed demand of the photovoltaic industry and the increase in double glass penetration rate, it is expected that photovoltaic glass demand will increase by about 20% in 2020, and the tight range of supply and demand will continue.The industry supply and demand scale in 2021 is expected to be similar to the average in 2019. Through the release of new capacity, the price center is expected to help move down, but leading companies can still maintain high profitability. The leading cost advantages are significant, and the concentration has continued to increase: leading companies are leading second- and third-tier companies in terms of 北京桑拿洗浴保健 cost control, management capabilities, and financial strength. The new expansion in 2020-2021 is mainly for leading companies with a capacity of 1,000 tons / day or more.Large kiln production efficiency is high, the unit is up to 600 tons / day small kiln reduced by about 15% -20%, the finished product rate is about 5% higher, and personnel requirements and management will be simplified and optimized.At present, in the whole industry supply, small kilns less than 500 tons / day account for about 16%. After 2021, the product price will be supported by the small capacity cost line. Leading companies can still maintain about 20% when there is no gross profit in small capacity.Gross margin, leading profit increase protection. Profit forecast: It is expected that the company’s production capacity will expand smoothly, and the net profit for 2019-2021 will be 7 respectively.5, 12.0 and 13.600 million, give a buy rating. Risk reminder: PV installation is less than expected, capacity release is less than expected, raw material and energy prices rise